Background and Aims: This study aims to utilise selected modifiable risk factors to forecast stroke mortality between 2019 and 2050, globally and across socioeconomic levels.

Methods: From the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors study, three risk factors associated with stroke mortality were identified: high systolic blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body mass index. These factors were utilised to forecast risk-attributable fractions between 2019-2050. For deaths not attributed to these risk factors, time series models were used, with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) serving as an external predictor. Various health scenarios were developed by extrapolating past 85th and 15th percentiles of annualized rates of change in risk factors across all location-years.

Results: Compared with observed figures in 2019, our analysis predicts a 27% increase in worldwide stroke mortality by 2050, rising from 6.6 million to 8.3 million deaths. Notably, high-SDI nations were anticipated to experience a 28% rise, while those with low SDI were predicted to encounter a substantial 54.4% increase in stroke-related deaths. These projections are subject to change according to the independent risk factors trajectories. If trends worsen, the increase could spike to 91%, whereas more favourable trends might yield a 17% reduction. The modelled changes are largely attributable to population ageing.

Conclusions: The absolute number of stroke deaths is predicted to continue its upward trend in the next three decades. There will be more significant rises in countries with lower socioeconomic levels, and variations among nations are …