Background and Aims: Traditional stroke mortality forecasts have focused on demographic shifts, with limited emphasis on modifiable risk factors. This study leverages such factors to predict global stroke mortality from 2021 to 2050.

Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2021) identified three risk factors linked to stroke mortality: elevated systolic blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, and increased body mass index. Risk-attributable fractions were projected for 2021–2050. Deaths not attributed to these factors were modeled using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), incorporating the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) as a predictor.