作者
Yiran Cheng, Yongqi Lin, Hujuan Shi, Mingmei Cheng, Baoliang Zhang, Xiaofeng Liu, Chuan Shi, Yanzhong Wang, Chunhua Xia, Wanqing Xie
发表日期
2024/12/3
期刊
Journal of the American Heart Association
卷号
13
期号
23
页码范围
e036142
简介
Background
Stroke is a pressing public health issue worldwide. This study aimed to forecast the future temporal trends and distribution characteristics of the global stroke burden.
Methods and Results
Global data on stroke incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability‐adjusted life years between 1990 and 2021 were obtained from the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) Study 2021. The temporal trends of stroke burden were estimated using various regression models. Gross domestic product per capita was adopted as a predictor in the model to consider the impact of economic development on stroke burden. Projections of stroke burden up to 2050 were generated using the optimal model selected based on the Akaike information criterion, encompassing global, World Bank income levels, national levels, and sex‐age groups. In 2050, we projected 21.43 million stroke cases, 159.31 million survivors, 12.05 …
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